关键词: 生态经济；旅游经济；耦合协调度；GM（1, 1）模型；合肥都市圈

Abstract: Taking Hefei metropolitan area as the research area, the evaluation index systems of ecological economy and tourism economy are constructed respectively. The development index and coupling coordination degree of the two systems from 2016 to 2020 are measured and analyzed by global entropy method, comprehensive index evaluat ion model and coupling coordination degree model, and then the development trend of coupling coordination degree is predicted by GM(1,1)model. The results show that from 2016 to 2019, the growth trends of the average development indices of the two systems in Hefei metropolitan area are similar, while those of the average development indices of the two systems are opposite in 2020, but the regional differences of the two systems are both shrinking. In spatial and temporal dimensions, the eight cities(counties) in Hefei metropolitan area generally show an upward trend with fluctuations, and the coupling level evolves from being on the verge of imbalance to intermediate coordination. The specific spatial evolution law is "convex"— "high in the middle, low in the north and south"— "concave"; The coupling coordination degree of each member of Hefei metropolitan area is dynamically simulated. The simulation results of all cities(counties) are good except Hefei, which reflects that the coupling coordination degree will develop to a high level in the future. The research results of this paper can provide reference for Hefei metropolitan area to promote sustainable tourism development and ecological civilization construction.

Key words: ecological economy, tourism economy, coupling coordination degree, GM(1,1) model, Hefei metropolitan area