Journal of Chaohu University ›› 2018, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6): 1-7.

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EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IN ANHUI PROVINCE BASED ON ARIMA MODEL

Based on the actual CPI data of Anhui Province from January 2010 to August 2018, this paper constructs a price index prediction model based on non-stationary time series analysis (ARIMA)and conducts empirical analysis. The results show that the absolute and relative absolute errors of the model are within a small fluctuation range. This shows that the model fits well and the predicted value approaches the true value. Finally, the CPI data from September to November 2018 in Anhui Province is predicted using this model.#br#   

  1. Chao College
  • Received:2017-09-18 Online:2018-11-25 Published:2019-03-20

Abstract: Based on the actual CPI data of Anhui Province from January 2010 to August 2018, this paper constructs a price index prediction model based on non-stationary time series analysis (ARIMA)and conducts empirical analysis. The results show that the absolute and relative absolute errors of the model are within a small fluctuation range. This shows that the model fits well and the predicted value approaches the true value. Finally, the CPI data from September to November 2018 in Anhui Province is predicted using this model.

Key words: time series analysis, consumer price index, ARIMA model, model prediction

CLC Number: 

  • F222.33