巢湖学院学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 23-27.doi: 10.12152/j.issn.1672-2868.2019.03.004
摘要：研究给出了两部件冷备系统可靠度的Bayes 估计，在此基础上针对超参数的先验分布分别讨论了Bayes假设和Jeffreys先验两种无信息先验的情形，进而给出相应的系统可靠度的多层Bayes 估计。通过数例分析对冷备系统可靠度的Bayes估计及两种超参数先验分布下的多层Bayes 估计的精度进行了比较，并且说明了多层Bayes 估计的合理性。
Abstract: Bayes estimation of reliability of two-component cold standby system is given. On this basis, we discuss the Bayes hypothesis and Jeffreys priori for the non-informative priori distribution of hyper-parameters, then the multi-layer Bayes estimation of the system reliability is given. The accuracy of multi-layer Bayes estimation under the two kinds of hyper-parametric prior distributions is compared by the example. We also compare the accuracy of Bayes estimation and multi -layer Bayes estimation. Finally, the rationality of multi -layer Bayes estimation is explained.#br#
