Journal of Chaohu University ›› 2019, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 14-22.doi: 10.12152/j.issn.1672-2868.2019.03.003

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Urbanization, Human Capital and Foreign Trade ——An Empirical Study Based on var Model

Abstract: Since the reform and opening up policy, China has made remarkable achievements in many fields.China爷s foreign trade has also followed the trend of development, gaining more and more discourse power. In this paper, Anhui province was selected as the research object. Firstly, the current situation and existing problems about Anhui province爷s foreign trade are analyzed. Then, based on the time series data in 1981—2015 of Anhui province,we construct var model to analyze the influence of human capital and urbanization on foreign trade. According to the impulse response function variance decomposition model, the results show that urbanization has a deeper impact on foreign trade than human capital. The positive impact on urbanization is good for the development of export  trade. But for import trade, the human capital and urbanization play an unimportant role. Finally, according to the result of empirical analysis, in order to improve the level of foreign trade, the government should increase#br# investment in education, improve urban infrastructure construction and urban employment opportunities.   

  1. Anhui University
  • Received:2018-10-29 Online:2019-05-25 Published:2019-05-25
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Abstract: Abstract: Since the reform and opening up policy, China has made remarkable achievements in many fields.China爷s foreign trade has also followed the trend of development, gaining more and more discourse power. In this paper, Anhui province was selected as the research object. Firstly, the current situation and existing problems about Anhui province爷s foreign trade are analyzed. Then, based on the time series data in 1981—2015 of Anhui province,we construct var model to analyze the influence of human capital and urbanization on foreign trade. According to the impulse response function variance decomposition model, the results show that urbanization has a deeper impact on foreign trade than human capital. The positive impact on urbanization is good for the development of export  trade. But for import trade, the human capital and urbanization play an unimportant role. Finally, according to the result of empirical analysis, in order to improve the level of foreign trade, the government should increase
investment in education, improve urban infrastructure construction and urban employment opportunities.

Key words: Key words: urbanization, human capital, foreign trade, var model

CLC Number: 

  • F126.2