In recent years, urban ozone pollution has become increasingly prominent, making the prediction of ozone
concentrations crucial for early prevention and control measures. In Hefei, the number of days with ozone as the
primary pollutant is increasing, and ozone has now surpassed PM2.5 as the leading contributor to air quality degradation. In response, this study focuses on Hefei and uses the daily average ozone concentrations from January 2022 to
June 2023 to create a time series. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is then
developed to forecast the ozone levels for the summer of 2023 and the model's performance is evaluated. The results indicate that the model's fitted curves basically align with the actual measurements, with the relative errors of
the three-day short-term forecasts remaining within 20%. The model's root-mean-square-error (RMSE) is 21.18 μg·m-3, and the goodness-of-fit R2 reaches 0.904 3, demonstrating robust fitting and predictive capabilities. These
ozone forecasts provide a scientific basis for environmental protection efforts, support decision-making in urban
planning, and positively impact public health.
XU Cheng-li, ZHENG Chao-yang, XIANG Yan, LV Li-hui, LIU Ren-long
. Prediction of Near-surface Ozone Concentration in Hefei Based on the SARIMA Model[J]. Journal of Chaohu University, 2024
, 26(6)
: 20
-25
.
DOI: 10.12152/j.issn.1672-2868.2024.06.004