Based on the connotation of science popularization capacity, this paper constructs an index system from five dimensions: science popularization personnel, venues, funds, media, and activities. Using the entropy method, we measure the science popularization capacity of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021. The regional differences and evolution trends of science popularization capacity levels are revealed through the Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation method. The study finds that the overall level of science popularization capacity in the 31 provinces shows a steady upward trend. Significant regional differences exist, primarily stemming from interregional disparities. The internal differences within the eastern region are the largest, and the interregional differences between the eastern and central regions are the most pronounced. The absolute differences in science popularization capacity levels among the entire country, as well as within the eastern, central, and western regions, exhibit a steady decline. By striving to scientifically and comprehensively measure the provincial science popularization capacity, this paper further reveals the sources of regional differences and analyzes the characteristics of dynamic evolution, providing valuable insights for constructing a new pattern of science popularization work in the new era.