以合肥都市圈为研究区域，分别构建生态经济与旅游经济评价指标体系，运用全局熵值法、综合指数评价模型、耦合协调度模型测度分析2016—2020年两系统发展指数以及耦合协调度，再运用GM（1，1）模型预测耦合协调度值的发展趋势。研究表明：2016—2019年，合肥都市圈两系统均值发展指数增长态势趋同，而2020年两系统发展均值指数出现相反，但二者的地区差异都呈缩小态势；时空维度上，合肥都市圈8个城市（县）总体上呈现波动性上升趋势，耦合等级由濒临失调向中级协调演变，空间具体演化规律是“凸”字型-“中间高-南北低”-“凹”字型；合肥都市圈各成员耦合协调度值进行了动态模拟，除了合肥，其余城市（县）模拟效果较好，同时反映出未来耦合协调度值向高水平发展。文章的研究结果可为合肥都市圈促进旅游持续发展和生态文明建设提供参考价值。

Taking Hefei metropolitan area as the research area, the evaluation index systems of ecological economy and tourism economy are constructed respectively. The development index and coupling coordination degree of the two systems from 2016 to 2020 are measured and analyzed by global entropy method, comprehensive index evaluat ion model and coupling coordination degree model, and then the development trend of coupling coordination degree is predicted by GM(1,1)model. The results show that from 2016 to 2019, the growth trends of the average development indices of the two systems in Hefei metropolitan area are similar, while those of the average development indices of the two systems are opposite in 2020, but the regional differences of the two systems are both shrinking. In spatial and temporal dimensions, the eight cities(counties) in Hefei metropolitan area generally show an upward trend with fluctuations, and the coupling level evolves from being on the verge of imbalance to intermediate coordination. The specific spatial evolution law is "convex"— "high in the middle, low in the north and south"— "concave"; The coupling coordination degree of each member of Hefei metropolitan area is dynamically simulated. The simulation results of all cities(counties) are good except Hefei, which reflects that the coupling coordination degree will develop to a high level in the future. The research results of this paper can provide reference for Hefei metropolitan area to promote sustainable tourism development and ecological civilization construction.