随着社会的快速发展，网络口碑逐渐成为电影行业中消费者作出购买决策的重要依据，从而对票房产生较大影响。基于情感分析方法挖掘网络文本影评中的情感信息并将其量化，研究影评数量、影评情感值和前期票房收入对电影档期内票房收入的影响，建立票房预测模型。对2016—2019年中国内地上映的国产电影进行实证分析，研究结果表明以上1周的票房收入、发表于前1天的网络口碑数量和发表于前1天的网络口碑情感值为自变量建立的票房预测模型能够有效预测电影档期内的票房收入，且模型也可在稍加改进以后对其他产品的销量作出预测。

With the rapid development of society, online comment has become an important reference for consumers to make purchase decisions in the film industry, and has an important influence on the box office. Based on the sentiment analysis method, the sentiment information in the film comment texts is extracted and quantified, and the box office prediction model is established to study the influence of the number of comments, the sentiment value of comments, and the early box office revenue on total box office revenue during the movie schedule. The empirical analysis of domestic films released in the Chinese mainland from 2016 to 2019 shows that the box office prediction model, established by independent variables including the box office revenue of the previous week, the number and sentiment value of online comments published on the previous day, can effectively predict the total box office revenue. The model can also be used to forecast sales of other products after improvement.