两部件冷备系统可靠度的Bayes估计

李玲; 鲍志晖

doi:10.12152/j.issn.1672-2868.2019.03.004

巢湖学院学报 >

2019 , Vol. 21 >Issue 3: 23 - 27

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12152/j.issn.1672-2868.2019.03.004

数理科学

两部件冷备系统可靠度的Bayes估计

李玲 ,
鲍志晖

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黄山学院数学与统计学院，安徽黄山 245041

作者简介:李玲(1980-),女,安徽庐江人,黄山学院数学与统计学院讲师,主要从事可靠性统计研究.

收稿日期: 2019-01-21

网络出版日期: 2019-05-25

基金资助

基金项目：安徽省教育厅自然科学研究项目（项目编号：KJ2011Z364）

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Bayes Estimation of Reliability of Two-Component Cold Standby System

LI Ling ,
BAO Zhi-hui

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School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huangshan University, Huangshan Anhui 245041

Received date: 2019-01-21

Online published: 2019-05-25

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摘要

摘要：研究给出了两部件冷备系统可靠度的Bayes 估计，在此基础上针对超参数的先验分布分别讨论了Bayes假设和Jeffreys先验两种无信息先验的情形，进而给出相应的系统可靠度的多层Bayes 估计。通过数例分析对冷备系统可靠度的Bayes估计及两种超参数先验分布下的多层Bayes 估计的精度进行了比较，并且说明了多层Bayes 估计的合理性。

关键词： 关键词：两部件; 冷备系统; Bayes 估计; 多层Bayes 估计; 无信息先验

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李玲 , 鲍志晖 . 两部件冷备系统可靠度的Bayes估计[J]. 巢湖学院学报, 2019 , 21(3) : 23 -27 . DOI: 10.12152/j.issn.1672-2868.2019.03.004

Abstract

Abstract: Bayes estimation of reliability of two-component cold standby system is given. On this basis, we discuss the Bayes hypothesis and Jeffreys priori for the non-informative priori distribution of hyper-parameters, then the multi-layer Bayes estimation of the system reliability is given. The accuracy of multi-layer Bayes estimation under the two kinds of hyper-parametric prior distributions is compared by the example. We also compare the accuracy of Bayes estimation and multi -layer Bayes estimation. Finally, the rationality of multi -layer Bayes estimation is explained.

Key words： Key words: two-component; cold standby system; Bayes estimation; multi-layer Bayes estimation; Non-informative prior

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