巢湖学院学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (6): 1-9.doi: 10.12152/j.issn.1672-2868.2019.06.001

• 环巢湖研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

新发展理念下合肥市人居环境与经济高质量协调发展分析与预测

巢湖学院  旅游管理学院  副教授,博士研究生。   

  1. 巢湖学院  旅游管理学院
  • 收稿日期:2019-08-14 出版日期:2019-11-25 发布日期:2019-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 刘锐(1979-),男,安徽巢湖人,巢湖学院旅游管理学院副教授,博士研究生,主要从事乡村旅游开发与规划、农 业与环境经济学研究。
  • 作者简介:刘锐(1979-),男,安徽巢湖人,巢湖学院旅游管理学院副教授,博士研究生,主要从事乡村旅游开发与规划、农 业与环境经济学研究。
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省教育厅人文社科重点项目(项目编号:SK2017A0485、SK2018A0487);安徽省高校人文社科重点基地项目(项目编号:SK2018A0495);巢湖学院校级精品资源共享课程(项目编号:ch17gxk07)

Analysis and Forecast on the Coordinated Development of Human Settlement Environment and High Quality Economy in Hefei under the New Development Concept

School of Tourism Management, Chaohu University   

  1. School of Tourism Management, Chaohu University
  • Received:2019-08-14 Online:2019-11-25 Published:2019-11-25
  • Contact: School of Tourism Management, Chaohu University, Chaohu Anhui 238000
  • About author:School of Tourism Management, Chaohu University, Chaohu Anhui 238000

摘要: 在构建人居环境与经济高质量协调发展评价指标体系的基础上,采用熵权法、耦合协调度模型和动态协调度模型对合肥市人居环境与经济高质量发展水平进行评价,并分析两大系统的协调演化特征,运用障碍度模型对其协调发展的障碍因素进行分析,最后运用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测两大系统未来的动态协调度。结果表明:(1)2012-2017 年合肥市人居环境和经济高质量发展水平呈相同的时序特征,发展过程可划分为人居环境滞后阶段和经济高质量发展滞后阶段2 个阶段;(2)协调度总体呈逐年上升态势,其数值由2012 年的
0.2732 持续增加至2017 年的0.6525,协调度增长率逐渐趋缓,协调状态经历了由初级失调向初级协调类型转化,动态协调度总体呈现稳步增长的态势:(3)空气中二氧化硫含量尧人均住房建筑面积、人均日常生活用水量、金融机构贷款余额、单位GDP 电耗、进出口总额发展速度是影响合肥市人居环境与经济高质量协调发展的主要障碍因子:(4)未来几年动态协调度将呈现持续改善的趋势。

关键词: 新发展理念, 合肥市, 人居环境, 经济高质量发展, 协调发展

Abstract: Based on constructing the evaluation index system for the coordinated development of human settlement environment and high quality economy, entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model and dynamic coordination degree model were used to evaluate the development level of human settlement environment and high quality economy and analyze the characteristics of coordinated evolution of the two systems in Hefei. The obstacle degree model was used to analyze the obstacle factors of its coordinated development. Finally the grey GM(1,1)model was used to predict the future dynamic coordination degree of the two systems. The results show that: (1)The human settlement environment and the high-quality economic development level show the same time sequence characteristics in Hefei from 2012 to 2017; the development process can be divided into the lagging stage of human settlement environment and the lagging stage of high-quality economic development.(2)The degree of  coordination  increased year by year; its value increased from 0.2732 in 2012 to 0.6525 in 2017; the growth rate of coordination
degree showed a trend of slowing down; the coordination state has experienced the transformation from the primary disorder to the primary coordination; the degree of dynamic coordination has been increasing steadily.(3)Sulfur dioxide content in the air, per capita housing construction area, per capita daily life water consumption, balance of financial institutions loans, per unit GDP electricity consumption, total import and export development speed are the main obstacles to the coordinated development of human settlement environment and high quality economy in Hefei.(4)In the next few years, dynamic coordination degree will show a trend of continuous improvement.

Key words: new development concept, Hefei, human settlement environment, high quality economic development;coordinated development

中图分类号: 

  • X22